Extended Data Fig. 1: Main determinants of national caloric production stability.

a–h, Effects of crop diversity (a), crop asynchrony (b), irrigation (c), nitrogen use intensity (d), temperature instability (e), precipitation instability (f), warfare (g) and time (h) on caloric production stability. Results are shown for the linear regression models including crop diversity (green), crop asynchrony (blue) and both (orange) (n = 590). Irrigation and nitrogen use intensity were back-transformed from square-root-transformation, predicted values were back-transformed from log-transformation. Predictions were calculated using the observed range of the focal predictor, while keeping all the other predictors at their mean values. Shaded areas represent 95% confidence intervals. The figure was created with the statistical software package R 3.6.1¹⁰.