Extended Data Fig. 5: Additional models show that nonlinear climate parameter relationships constrain SC-CH4 estimates.
From: Equity is more important for the social cost of methane than climate uncertainty
Parameter and SC-CH4 relationships for the S-FAIR (top row), S-FUND (middle row) and S-Hector (bottom row) climate models. a–c, Posterior relationships between four uncertain climate parameters. Different sized circles correspond to different terrestrial carbon pool respiration–temperature sensitivity values (with higher values signalling increasing heterotrophic respiration of carbon dioxide with temperature). The colour of each dot scales with the vertical rate of heat diffusion into the ocean. d–f, Posterior relationships between three of the uncertain climate parameters depicted in a–c with the SC-CH4 estimated for RCP 8.5 under a constant 3% consumption discount rate. Different sized diamonds and circles identify respiration temperature sensitivity values for DICE and FUND. The colour of each point scales with the aerosol radiative forcing factor (with higher values signalling stronger aerosol cooling). Each panel depicts 5,000 randomly selected posterior estimates, with loess-smoothed curves (white lines) helping to illustrate the relationship between x- and y-axis values.
