Extended Data Fig. 7: Strong positive relationship between the SC-CH4 and ECS under the US SC-CH4 estimation framework.
From: Equity is more important for the social cost of methane than climate uncertainty
a, Solid coloured lines depict posterior ECS distributions for the S-FAIR (blue), S-FUND (purple), S-Hector (pink) and S-MAGICC (orange) climate models. The dark grey dashed line shows the ECS distribution used for official US SC-CH4 estimates. Coloured asterisks along the x axis identify the estimated mean for the different distributions. b–e, SC-CH4 vales estimated for a constant 3% consumption discount rate under RCP 8.5 following the treatment of parametric climate uncertainty by the US SC-CH4 estimation framework. ECS values are sampled from the same distribution used to estimate the US SC-CH4 values. Other uncertain climate model and statistical process parameters remain fixed at their posterior mean values. Each panel depicts 2,000 randomly selected SC-CH4 estimates for DICE (circles) and FUND (diamonds), with loess-smoothed curves (white lines) helping to illustrate the relationship between the ECS and SC-CH4.
