Fig. 4: Future summer \({{\boldsymbol{p}}}_{{{\bf{CO}}}_{{\bf{2}}}}^{{\prime} }\) is dominated by warming, particularly in shelf seas.

a–i, Arctic maps of the summer anomalies of total \({p}_{{{\rm{CO}}}_{2}}\) (a–c), the thermal component (d–f) and the non-thermal component (g–i) are shown for the CMIP5 mean (RCP8.5) as decadal averages for 2006–2015 (modern; a,d,g), 2091–2100 (future; b,e,h) and their difference (c,f,i). The summer anomaly is the average of the monthly anomalies over the three summer months (June, August, September). The components are from the Taylor expansion. The non-thermal component can be further decomposed into its various contributions, as discussed later, showing for instance that its reduction on the shelves is mostly from reduced influence of CT.