Extended Data Fig. 8: Output from 5-fold cross validation study to assess the ability of our model to predict spillover clusters.
From: Pathogen spillover driven by rapid changes in bat ecology
The red bars correspond to whether a cluster of spillovers was observed in that year and the grey bars and number correspond to predicted probabilities. For a given year, roost-level predictions are made using models fit on roosts-year combinations from other folds. This approach provides strong evidence of the predictive ability of the model framework as it predicts, with high certainty, the presence or absence of clusters of spillovers in all 25 years.
