Extended Data Fig. 8: Sensitivity analysis of the global methane (CH4) diffusive estimate.
The dark grey vertical line illustrates the mean estimate of global emissions, with lighter shades representing the 50, 75 and 95 % quantiles of the Monte Carlo simulation. The sensitivity analysis was performed for each flux parameter (gas transfer velocity, CH4 concentration, river area) by increasing (blue) or decreasing (red) a parameter by 1 SD, then re-running the Monte Carlo simulation. Vertical coloured central lines show the mean values, with the rectangles decreasing in size showing the 50, 75 and 95 % percentiles. Thin vertical lines show the individual replicates of the Monte Carlo simulation for each experiment as well as for the main estimate (grey, bottom). Note that the uncertainty of the Monte Carlo simulation is highly sensitive to the uncertainty considered for each parameter, and thus it may change if other models are used.
