Fig. 3: Twenty-year trends in observed and reconstructed ΔSLP.
From: Forced changes in the Pacific Walker circulation over the past millennium
a, Green shading represents the 2.5th/97.5th quantiles of running 20-year trends throughout the 1200–2000 reconstruction interval, from the 4,800-member reconstruction ensemble (with each point showing the 20-year trend ending in that year). Coloured lines show running 20-year trends in ΔSLP for 1900–2011 for HadSLP25 and ICOADS26 and 1900–2010 for ERA-20C (ref. 27). b, Full distribution of the magnitude of 20-year trends in ΔSLP over 1900–2000 (from all individual reconstruction ensemble members). Dark grey tails show the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles. Red bar shows the mean magnitude of the 1992–2011 ΔSLP trend for HadSLP and ICOADS. c, As per b but showing 19-year trends in reconstruction ensemble members trained on ΔSLP calculated from ERA-20C. Red bar shows the magnitude of the 1992–2010 ΔSLP trend in ERA-20C. d,e, As per b but only showing reconstruction ensemble members trained on ΔSLP calculated from ICOADS and HadSLP, respectively. Red bars show the magnitude of the 1992–2011 ΔSLP trend in ICOADS and HadSLP, respectively.
