Fig. 5: SEA performed on PMIP3/4 simulations and all fully forced ensemble members from the CESM1 LME.
From: Forced changes in the Pacific Walker circulation over the past millennium
Volcanic eruption strength as per ref. 53 for CESM1 LME (ref. 40) and PMIP3 models42, and as per ref. 35 for PMIP4 models43. Each line shows the composite response for one simulation in the −3 to +6 years relative to the included eruptions. Each line is associated with a grey band showing the threshold required for epochal anomalies to be deemed statistically significant (P < 0.05)37. A significant response (that is, when a line exceeds its confidence intervals) is highlighted by a point on the relevant line. a, SEA performed on ΔSLP calculated from the PMIP3/4 and CESM1 LME ‘PSL’ fields including the 25 strongest eruptions over the 1200–2000 interval. b, As per a but including only the 12 strongest eruptions. c, As per a but including only the four strongest eruptions. d–f, As per a–c but with SEA performed on relative SST (RSST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (Methods).
