Fig. 4: EVEscape and experiments make distinct, complementary escape predictions.
From: Learning from prepandemic data to forecast viral escape
a, Share of top decile of predicted escape mutations, predicted using EVEscape or mutational scan experiments (Bloom Set, Supplementary Table 5), seen so far more than 100 times in the pandemic. As the virus evolves further, more of the predicted escape mutations are expected to appear. b, RBD site-averaged EVEscape scores agree with site-averaged antibody escape experimental mutational scan measures (Bloom Set, Supplementary Table 5), with high EVEscape sites that are missing from experimental escape prediction found within known antibody footprints. Hue indicates known antibody footprints from the PDB (information that EVEscape as a prepandemic model does not use). c, Predicted escape mutations from experimental mutational scans (Bloom Set, Supplementary Table 5) measuring recognition by convalescent sera from patients infected with either Wuhan, Beta or Delta strains have high EVEscape scores. Sites that escape sera are coloured by whether they have occurred in the pandemic more than 1,000 times. d, Heatmaps illustrating the EVEscape scores of all single mutations to the Wuhan sequence of SARS-CoV-2 RBD. Top lines are sites with observed pandemic mutation frequency >100 and sites in the top 15% of DMS experimental predictions from mutational scan experiments.
