Extended Data Fig. 4: Synthetic data analysis shows EVOFLUx is robust to varying modelling assumptions.

a: Posterior distributions after fitting the simulated data in Fig. 2b with the Bayesian inference method. The posterior (orange) displays tightening around the ground truth parameter values (red) compared to the prior (grey). b: Histogram of the simulated fCpG methylation distribution (blue) with the posterior predictive of the model fit overlaid (orange). c: Histograms showing the methylation distributions of 10,000 synthetic fCpGs simulated under the logistic growth model with varying carrying capacity (Supplementary Information). d-e: EVOFLUx posterior median and 95% credible interval were run on a subset of 2,000 of the simulated fCpGs in c as a function of the carrying capacity for the growth rate (d) and most recent common ancestor age (e). The dashed red line represents the ground truth parameter value. f: Histograms showing the fCpG methylation distributions of 10,000 synthetic fCpGs simulated under the heterogenous epigenetic switching model with varying switching rate standard deviation (Supplementary Information). g-h: EVOFLUx posterior median and 95% credible interval when run on a subset of 2,000 of the simulated fCpGs in f as a function of the switching rate standard deviation for the growth rate (g) and most recent common ancestor age (h).