Extended Data Fig. 7: Climate warming patterns and vegetation thermophilization rate/climatic debt.
From: Contrasting thermophilization among forests, grasslands and alpine summits
a, Relationship between baseline temperature and temperature change rate of the growing season across ecosystems and the associated residual plot. Each point represents a plot (n = 6038), with the red line indicating the linear regression fit and the shaded red area showing the 95% confidence interval around the fitted relationship. These visual and statistical diagnostics suggest that a linear baseline temperature term provides a reasonable adjustment in the estimation of thermophilization rate and climatic debt, with no strong evidence that a more complex or non-linear formulation is necessary in our analysis. b, Vegetation thermophilization rates and climatic debts (°C per decade) in different ecosystems as estimated using the 20% and 80% percentiles of the floristic temperature distribution. Thermophilization rate and climatic data were estimated using vegetation abundance data excluding rare species. Circles represent means (n = 4372, 1209, and 457 plots for forests, grasslands, and alpine summits, respectively) with 80% (thick line) and 95% (thin line) credible intervals and posterior distributions obtained from Bayesian mixed-effects models.
