Extended Data Fig. 4: Thermophilization explained by the mechanisms of species gains, losses, or abundance shifts in different ecosystems.
From: Contrasting thermophilization among forests, grasslands and alpine summits
a, Proportions of plots in which thermophilization was primarily driven by mechanisms of species gains, losses, or abundance shifts. The dominant mechanism was identified for each plot as the one contributing the most (in absolute terms) to the observed shift in community thermal affinity. These results indicate that thermophilization was mainly driven by mechanisms of gains in grasslands, gains and losses in forests, and losses and abundance shifts on alpine summits. b, Relationship between observed versus estimated community-weighted mean temperature (ΔTCWM) for different ecosystem types without or with rare species. The sum of gains, losses, and abundance shifts of persisting species was used to estimate ΔTCWM per plot and compared with the observed ΔTCWM. Each point represents a plot (n = 4372, 1209, and 457 for forests, grasslands, and alpine summits, respectively), coloured by ecosystem type. Solid lines represent linear regression per ecosystem with 95% confidence intervals, and the dashed line denotes the 1:1 relationship. The significant linear relationships between estimated and observed ΔTCWM indicate that the three mechanisms collectively provide a reasonable explanation for observed thermophilization patterns.
