Fig. 2: Projected disruptive and combined disruptive-plus-ecological impacts of climate change on malaria transmission in the 2040s.
From: Projected impacts of climate change on malaria in Africa
a, Mapped percentage point change in PfPR2–10 due to disruptive impacts of climate change only. Values compare PfPR2–10 median across 2040–2049 impacted by simulated extreme weather events consistent with the SSP 2-4.5 scenario (ensemble mean of three downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP6 members) versus a counterfactual scenario with extreme weather events projected at present-day levels. Intervention coverage and socioeconomics otherwise held constant at present-day levels. Large water bodies and out-of-scope countries masked in grey. b, Mapped percentage point change in PfPR2–10 due to combined disruptive and ecological impacts of climate change. Values compare PfPR2–10 median across 2040–2049 under the SSP 2-4.5 scenario versus the counterfactual (no future climate change) scenario. Administrative boundaries were obtained from the Malaria Atlas Project (https://data.malariaatlas.org)41, under a CC BY 3.0 licence.
