Extended Data Fig. 1: Multi-step approach for attributing damages to emissions.
From: Quantifying climate loss and damage consistent with a social cost of carbon
Damages to the Brazilian economy from US emissions since 1990 are used as an example. a Total CO2 emissions from 1900 to 2020 before and after shutting off USA’s emissions starting in 1990, b Global mean surface temperature response from USA emissions (1990-2020), calculated using FaIR. Black line is median response. Grey interval is temperature response under varying parameters in FaIR. c change in temperature in 2020 as a result of US emissions, median estimate from “pattern scaling” the global temperature increase using 30 global climate models. d Observed Brazil population-average temperature time series (black) and baseline temperature absent USA emissions (red), e Observed Brazil real GDP 1990-2020 (black) and estimated counterfactual GDP absent USA emissions, calculated using empirical temperature-GDP damage function, f cumulative damages owed by USA to Brazil (1990-2020).
