Extended Data Fig. 4: Marginal effects of temperature on growth stabilize after 3–7 years.
From: Quantifying climate loss and damage consistent with a social cost of carbon
Using distributed lag models with between 0-10 years of lags, or local projections models with responses measured through 10 years after a 1-year shock, we test whether marginal effects stabilize after a certain number of years by calculating the GDP-weighted marginal effect at each lag and testing for trend breaks in the estimates using a breakpoint algorithm; see Supplementary Methods. a GDP-weighted marginal effects for distributed lag models stabilize around seven lags. Estimated trend breaks shown in red. b GDP-weighted estimates from local projections model stabilize after around three lags; estimated trend breaks shown in orange. c Overlay of distributed lag and local projection estimates. Estimates are equal at 5 lags, our chosen baseline model. Dotted red line shows the cumulative 5-year effect used in all projections in the paper.
