Supplementary Figure 10: Overflooding ratio simulations.

(a) Probability curves indicating likelihood of sampling given numbers of wild males on the x-axis under various assay sample sizes indicated by the legend. The subpanels display different true overflooding ratios including 10:1, 20:1, 30:1, and 40:1 indicated by subpanel titles. (b) Probabilities of overflooding ratio estimate bias under a true overflooding ratio of 5:1. Bias was estimated by comparing simulated subsampled collections to the ratio of the full sample before subsampling. Positive bias estimates indicate the strategy will overestimate the overflooding ratio. Each curve corresponds to a different sampling strategy (see Supplementary Text for details). Blue and purple curves are difficult to distinguish because these strategies had nearly identical bias distributions and mask each other (same for c-e). (c) Probability curves under true overflooding ratio of 10:1. (d) Probability curves under true overflooding ratio of 30:1. (e) Probability curves under true overflooding ratio of 50:1. Note the different x and y axis ranges in panels b-e.