Extended Data Fig. 5: Neuroblastoma initiation during progenitor expansion.
From: Neuroblastoma arises in early fetal development and its evolutionary duration predicts outcome
a, Two-dimensional projections of the posterior probability distribution of the model parameters (considering neuroblastoma initiation in a transient population of early neuroblasts). b, Predicted expansion of neuroblasts (grey) and the selected subclone upon acquisition of the first oncogenic event (dark green) in a model of transient neuroblast expansion. Colored areas show the 95% posterior probability bounds (estimated from simulations using 1,000 samples from the posterior probability distribution). Vertical line and shaded area give mean and 95% CI for the estimated time of birth (computed from n = 62 primary tumors). c, Comparison of parameter estimates if fitting the model to all SSNVs or to SSNVs generated by a clock-like mutational process only. For the latter, mutant densities were adjusted by the fraction of SSNVs explained by SBS1, SBS5 or SBS40. For each parameter, median and 80% credible intervals are shown (estimated from n = 1000 samples of the posterior distribution). d, Comparison between the estimated time point at which the MRCA (left, n = 95 primary tumors/metastases with TMM) and the ECA (right, n = 47 primary tumors/metastases with TMM) emerged if using all SSNVs or if using SSNVs that were generated by a clock-like process only. Time is measured in weeks post conceptionem (p.c.).
