Extended Data Fig. 5: Close agreement between prediction and actual incidence of MN.

Comparison of the predicted probability of developing any MN with the observed MN incidence in the UKB validation cohort of 207,039 individuals at any time during the follow-up/observation period (dots showing the mean and error bars showing 1.96 standard deviations that is 5–95% CI). Samples were binned according to predicted probability ranges as follows: 0–0.05, 0.05–0.1, 0.1–0.3, 0.3–0.5 and 0.5–1. Individuals who died during the observation period without having developed MN were not included in the calculations. The plot shows close agreement (along the dotted line y = x) between prediction and observed incidence.