Fig. 1

Spatial plots summarising the downscaling approach using a heat wave on July 1, 2010 as an example. Each plot shows near surface air temperature. ERA5 re-analysis (a,c,f) is first downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (b) from a horizontal resolution of approximately 30 km to 12 km. A thermodynamic change signal derived from global climate models (GCMs) is added to the ERA5 data (d,g), representing a change from the baseline time period to 40 years in the future (July 2050 minus 2010) (d) and 80 years in the future (July 2090 minus 2010) (g). The modified ERA5 data are then downscaled with WRF yielding simulations that represent the same event from July 1, 2010 in the context of the July 1, 2050 climate (e) and July 1, 2090 climate (h). This is repeated for each time period from 1980–2019 and for 4 future warming trajectories. For illustrative purposes we show the results from the SSP585, high-sensitivity model trajectory.