Fig. 4

(a) Best estimate annual monthly minimum air temperature change in 2071–2099 (with respect to 1991–2020) under the SSP2-4.5 scenario (calculated as the mean across the Model Subset) with purple indicating a greater change. (b) Uncertainty corresponding to the best estimates (calculated as the standard deviation across the Model Subset) with dark blue indicating more uncertainty. (c) Difference in best estimate between Model Subset and All Models. Indicates how the model subsetting affects the best estimate with dark blue denoting greater changes. (d) Ratio of Model Subset uncertainty to All Models uncertainty. Indicates how the model subsetting affects the uncertainty with green denoting reduced uncertainty.