Table 3 The 67 CMIP6 models considered along with the corresponding number of ensemble members (or variants) used (up to 20 to conserve disk space), the global-mean air temperature trend for 1980–2014 (mean across ensemble members), the trend standard deviation (across ensemble members), the transient climate response (TCR; mean across ensemble members), the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; mean across ensemble members), and whether the model was included in the final Model Subset (see section “Constraining CMIP6 projections”).
From: High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901–2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections
Model | Number of ensemble members | Mean trend (1980–2014; °C decade−1) | Trend standard deviation (1980–2014; °C decade−1) | Transient Climate Response (TCR; °C) | Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS; °C) | Included in ‘Model Subset’? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ACCESS-CM2 | 10 | 0.279 | 0.030 | 1.97 | 5.51 | Yes |
ACCESS-ESM1-5 | 20 | 0.258 | 0.045 | 2.04 | 4.91 | Yes |
AWI-CM-1-1-MR | 5 | 0.239 | — | 2.05 | 3.14 | Yes |
AWI-ESM-1-1-LR | 1 | 0.273 | — | 2.03 | — | Yes |
BCC-CSM2-MR | 3 | 0.249 | — | 1.58 | 3.58 | Yes |
BCC-ESM1 | 3 | 0.276 | — | 1.74 | 3.52 | Yes |
CAMS-CSM1-0 | 3 | 0.160 | — | 1.83 | 2.31 | Yes |
CAS-ESM2-0 | 4 | 0.252 | — | 2.23 | 3.67 | No |
CESM2 | 11 | 0.274 | 0.034 | 2.30 | 5.86 | No |
CESM2-FV2 | 4 | 0.268 | — | 2.03 | 6.66 | Yes |
CESM2-WACCM | 3 | 0.313 | — | 2.01 | 5.57 | Yes |
CESM2-WACCM-FV2 | 3 | 0.285 | — | 2.08 | 5.60 | Yes |
CIESM | 3 | 0.261 | — | 2.41 | 6.26 | No |
CMCC-CM2-HR4 | 1 | 0.208 | — | — | — | Yes |
CMCC-CM2-SR5 | 11 | 0.239 | 0.053 | 2.20 | 3.50 | Yes |
CMCC-ESM2 | 1 | 0.222 | — | 1.99 | 3.53 | Yes |
CNRM-CM6-1 | 20 | 0.212 | 0.037 | 2.25 | 4.68 | Yes |
CNRM-CM6-1-HR | 1 | 0.211 | — | 2.49 | 4.10 | Yes |
CNRM-ESM2-1 | 11 | 0.189 | 0.059 | 1.86 | 4.87 | Yes |
CanESM5 | 20 | 0.381 | 0.037 | 2.70 | 5.79 | No |
CanESM5-1 | 20 | 0.357 | 0.039 | 2.38 | 4.98 | No |
CanESM5-CanOE | 3 | 0.358 | — | 2.63 | — | No |
E3SM-1-0 | 5 | 0.322 | — | 3.07 | 5.67 | No |
E3SM-1-1 | 1 | 0.309 | — | — | — | No |
E3SM-1-1-ECA | 1 | 0.295 | — | — | — | No |
E3SM-2-0 | 5 | 0.248 | — | 2.50 | 4.12 | No |
EC-Earth3 | 20 | 0.261 | 0.070 | 2.66 | 4.21 | No |
EC-Earth3-AerChem | 3 | 0.310 | — | 2.15 | 3.89 | Yes |
EC-Earth3-CC | 10 | 0.279 | 0.068 | 2.71 | 4.19 | No |
EC-Earth3-Veg | 9 | 0.269 | — | 2.70 | 4.43 | No |
EC-Earth3-Veg-LR | 3 | 0.260 | — | 2.45 | 4.37 | No |
FGOALS-f3-L | 3 | 0.231 | — | 1.93 | 3.17 | Yes |
FGOALS-g3 | 6 | 0.199 | — | 1.40 | 2.84 | Yes |
FIO-ESM-2-0 | 3 | 0.249 | — | 2.21 | 4.71 | No |
GFDL-CM4 | 1 | 0.286 | — | 2.09 | 4.36 | Yes |
GFDL-ESM4 | 3 | 0.239 | — | 1.49 | 2.86 | Yes |
GISS-E2-1-G | 20 | 0.212 | 0.027 | 1.77 | 2.68 | Yes |
GISS-E2-1-G-CC | 1 | 0.235 | — | — | — | Yes |
GISS-E2-1-H | 20 | 0.254 | 0.042 | 1.96 | 3.12 | Yes |
GISS-E2-2-G | 11 | 0.169 | 0.034 | 1.73 | 2.23 | Yes |
GISS-E2-2-H | 5 | 0.220 | — | 1.87 | — | Yes |
HadGEM3-GC31-LL | 5 | 0.326 | — | 2.44 | 5.65 | No |
HadGEM3-GC31-MM | 4 | 0.279 | — | 2.66 | 5.30 | No |
IITM-ESM | 1 | 0.154 | — | 1.68 | 2.37 | Yes |
INM-CM4-8 | 1 | 0.212 | — | 1.33 | 1.89 | Yes |
INM-CM5-0 | 10 | 0.210 | 0.028 | 1.39 | 2.05 | Yes |
IPSL-CM5A2-INCA | 1 | 0.265 | — | 2.00 | 4.09 | Yes |
IPSL-CM6A-LR | 20 | 0.250 | 0.044 | 2.36 | 4.90 | No |
IPSL-CM6A-LR-INCA | 1 | 0.247 | — | — | — | No |
KACE-1-0-G | 3 | 0.284 | — | 2.56 | 5.55 | No |
KIOST-ESM | 1 | 0.271 | — | — | 4.63 | No |
MCM-UA-1-0 | 2 | 0.256 | — | 1.94 | — | Yes |
MIROC-ES2H | 3 | 0.187 | — | — | — | Yes |
MIROC-ES2L | 20 | 0.201 | 0.027 | 1.52 | 2.55 | Yes |
MIROC6 | 20 | 0.177 | 0.028 | 1.58 | 2.53 | Yes |
MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM | 3 | 0.223 | — | 1.71 | 3.15 | Yes |
MPI-ESM1-2-HR | 10 | 0.206 | 0.036 | 1.67 | 3.30 | Yes |
MPI-ESM1-2-LR | 20 | 0.203 | 0.026 | 1.86 | 3.06 | Yes |
MRI-ESM2-0 | 12 | 0.214 | 0.027 | 1.67 | 3.45 | Yes |
NESM3 | 5 | 0.302 | — | 2.58 | 4.61 | No |
NorCPM1 | 20 | 0.190 | 0.026 | 1.61 | 3.38 | Yes |
NorESM2-LM | 3 | 0.189 | — | 1.54 | 2.89 | Yes |
NorESM2-MM | 3 | 0.167 | — | 1.25 | 2.78 | Yes |
SAM0-UNICON | 1 | 0.276 | — | 2.13 | 4.28 | Yes |
TaiESM1 | 2 | 0.283 | — | 2.29 | 4.65 | No |
UKESM1-0-LL | 19 | 0.340 | 0.042 | 2.86 | 5.54 | No |
UKESM1-1-LL | 1 | 0.285 | — | 2.60 | 5.36 | No |
