Fig. 3 | Scientific Data

Fig. 3

From: A benchmark database of ten years of prospective next-day earthquake forecasts in California from the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

Fig. 3

Descriptive analysis. Panel (a) Cumulative number of M ≥ 3.95 earthquakes expected by the ETAS31 (blue) and STEP39 (orange) along with the observed numbers (black cross). The shaded region represents Poisson uncertainty. Panel (b) Incremental magnitude distribution represented by the logarithm in base 10 of the number of events with magnitude greater or equal than m for varying values of m. Blue points represent the ETAS model, orange points represent the STEP model, and black crosses represent the observed catalog. Panel (c) Logarithm of the absolute number of M ≥ 3.95 earthquakes per day. The blue line represents the ETAS model, the orange line represents the STEP model, and black crosses represents the observed catalogue. Dashed lines represent the upper end of the 95% confidence interval of the logarithm of the number of earthquakes calculated considering a Poisson distribution for the number of earthquakes. Panel (d) Logarithm of the absolute number of M ≥ 3.95 earthquakes expected by the ETAS (blue) and STEP (orange) models, red dots represent observed magnitudes.

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