Fig. 5 | Scientific Data

Fig. 5

From: A benchmark database of ten years of prospective next-day earthquake forecasts in California from the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

Fig. 5

Results of CSEP tests, vertical lines represent the 95% interval of values expected by the model, red dots indicate days where the observed statistics is outside the interval indicating inconsistency between forecasts and observations, green dots the opposite. Each plot reports the name of the model and the test, the confidence level α at which the intervals are considered, and the percentage of days with observed statistic outside the interval, we expect this to be close to α for consistent forecasts. Panel (a,b) Daily N-test results for (respectively) the ETAS31, and the STEP39 models. Panel (c) and (d) Daily S-test results for (respectively) the ETAS and STEP models. The tests are computed on each day with at least one M ≥ 3.95 observed earthquake.

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