Table 2 Summary of the adjustment of mixed effects models, including random effects for country, to observed hip fracture incidence rates.

SD_intercept

0.348

0.454

0.348

0.457

0.346

0.457

SD_year(linear)

—

—

0.060

0.077

0.060

0.077

SD_{year(quadratic)}

—

—

—

—

0.014

0.000

SD_residual

0.176

0.189

0.173

0.185

0.173

0.185

p-value (LR test, each model vs. the previous)

—

—

<0.001

<0.001

0.860

>0.999

Proportion (%) of variability explained compared to the fixed effects only model

47.6

56.6

48.6

57.4

48.5

57.4

Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)

−506.3618

−352.0886

−517.2905

−364.5618

−497.2848

−343.7998

Correlation between predicted and observed values

0.9935

0.9906

0.9938

0.9910

0.9938

0.9910

Relative Squared Error (RSE)

1.281

1.864

1.230

1.778

1.232

1.778

Relative Absolute Error (RAE)

9.997

12.193

9.784

11.935

9.781

11.935