Figure 1
From: Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America
Water year (October of the previous year to September) normalized time series of SLP-based trans-basin variability (TBV) index (top; the Principal Component of the first EOF mode of 3-year running mean filtered SLP anomalies10 from 60°S–60°N; reversed Y-axis, a positive index refers to anomalously low (high) SLP over the equatorial Atlantic (Pacific).), tropical Atlantic/Pacific SST gradient (second; standardized SST anomaly difference between the tropical Atlantic-Indian Ocean and the tropical central Pacific; reversed Y-axis), Northeast Pacific High anomalies (third; SLP anomalies averaged over 20°N–35°N, 150°W–120°W; reversed Y-axis), and the southwestern North American (SW NA) hydroclimate anomalies (averaged over 28°N–44°N, 125°W–100°W; black box in Fig. S3d) of precipitation (fourth; defined as precipitation anomaly divided by climatological mean), soil water (fifth; averaged from surface to 3-m depth), and wildfire (bottom panels; reversed Y-axis) in observation-based datasets (black; see Supplementary Methods with references) and assimilation run (AR) (colored lines). Correlation coefficients between observational estimates and AR are denoted in brackets. Shaded beige and cyan regions indicate water years with +/− one standard deviation in the TBV index. Anomalies are defined as a deviation from 1960–2015 climatological mean in AR. Climatological means, anomalies, and standard deviations in observational estimates are adjusted to have the same reference period as AR based on the available period of each observational estimates (see Supplementary Methods). Plots were generated using the NCAR Command Language (Version 6.3.0) [Software]. (2016). Boulder, Colorado: UCAR/NCAR/CISL/TDD. http://dx.doi.org/10.5065/D6WD3XH5.
