Figure 2
From: Multi-year predictability of climate, drought, and wildfire in southwestern North America
Frequency distributions of simulated (a) precipitation (defined as precipitation anomaly divided by climatological mean), (b) total soil water, and (c) fire season length anomalies averaged over southwestern North America (28°N–44°N, 125°W–100°W) for the natural (i.e., unforced) variability during 1960–2015 (black) and the external (blue) and the ocean + external components during the period 2010–2014 (red). The frequency distribution of natural variability (NAT) is determined by calculating the water year deviations of individual ensemble members from the ensemble mean in UR for 1960–2015 (i.e., ensemble spread in the uninitialized run). The frequency distributions of external and ocean + external components are estimated from the water year anomalies of individual ensemble members during 2010–2014 in UR and AR, respectively (i.e., 50 samples in each). A Kernel smoothing function is applied to these distributions. Plots were generated using the NCAR Command Language (Version 6.3.0) [Software]. (2016). Boulder, Colorado: UCAR/NCAR/CISL/TDD. http://dx.doi.org/10.5065/D6WD3XH5.
