Figure 4
From: Humans and climate change drove the Holocene decline of the brown bear
Spatiotemporal trends of extinction and colonization rates and occurrence of the brown bear in Europe during the past 12,000 years. (a,b), Maps showing (a) the net trend towards extinction (red) or colonization (blue) given as the logarithm of the ratio of extinction to colonization rates [log10(Ext. rate/Col. rate)], and (b) the probability of brown bear occurrence (blue) in each period. Estimates of extinction and colonization rates and occurrence probability were obtained from a metapopulation model based on archaeofaunal and contemporary occurrence records for the brown bear. Uncertainty in model assumptions was incorporated by a two-factorial design with two scenarios for changes in per capita land-use intensity during the Holocene (constant versus decreasing) and two scenarios for colonization of the European continent by the brown bear from Asia (yes versus no), respectively (see Supplementary Methods). The maps in (a,b) were created with the statistical programming language R 68 using the package rworldxtra 73.
