Table 1 An overview of hypotheses and predictions for the temporal and spatial pattern of incidence across different tick-borne diseases, and the level of support based analysis of incidences of Lyme disease, babesiosis and anaplasmosis in cattle and anaplasmosis in sheep in Norway, 1995–2015.
From: Emergence of tick-borne diseases at northern latitudes in Europe: a comparative approach
Hypotheses | Rationale | Predictions | Support |
|---|---|---|---|
The common vector hypothesis | If disease incidence is limited by the vector, we expect incidence to be linked to tick distribution | Shared trend over time across all diseases | + |
Common disease drivers (climate, deer populations) | + | ||
Similar spatial occurrence across all diseases | − | ||
Annual synchrony across all diseases | − | ||
The pathogen-host hypothesis | If disease incidence is limited by the presence of the pathogen, we expect incidence to be linked to the reservoir host distribution | Similar spatial pattern of incidence in anaplasmosis in sheep and cattle | − |
Annual synchrony of incidence of anaplasmosis in sheep and cattle | − | ||
More anaplasmosis in areas with red deer | + | ||
The tick exposure hypothesis | If disease incidence is limited by exposure, we expect disease incidence linked to land use practices affecting exposure | Similar spatial pattern of incidence in the two cattle diseases | + |
Shared trend over time for the cattle diseases | (+) | ||
Annual synchrony of cattle diseases | (+) |
