Table 3 Estimated probabilities of CHD mortality risk in deciles of estimated risk from six different models in Northern and Southern Europe. (1 calibration, 5 re-calibration).

Model	Details	Estimated risk probabilities
Model	Details	NE	SE
Calibrated SELF	Mean observed	0.2519	0.0801
	Mean expected	0.2555	0.0829
	Decile 1	0.0939	0.0198
	Decile 10	0.5532	0.2452
	Ratio decile10/decile1	5.89	12.39
	p of chi squared of GNDD test	0.7296	0.5942
Re-calibrated SCM	Mean expected	0.1148	0.1908
	Decile 1	0.0311	0.0652
	Decile 10	0.3107	0.4420
	Ratio decile10/decile1	10.0	6.78
	p of chi squared of GNDD test	<0.0001	<0.0001
Re-calibrated CM	Mean expected	0.3516	0.0547
	Decile 1	0.1161	0.0171
	Decile 10	0.3516	0.1419
	Ratio decile10/decile1	6.40	8.32
	p of chi squared of GNDD test	<0.0001	<0.0001
Re-calibrated C	Mean expected	0.2624	0.0768
	Decile 1	0.0802	0.0243
	Decile 10	0.6070	0.1957
	Ratio decile10/decile1	7.60	8.06
	p of chi squared of GNDD test	0.2820	0.3776
Re-calibrated WC	Mean expected	0.2763	0.0938
	Decile 1	0.0628	0.0150
	Decile 10	0.7129	0.3295
	Ratio decile10/decile1	11.34	21.94
	p of chi squared of GNDD test	<0.0001	0.0178
Re-calibrated ALTS	Mean expected	0.2141	0.0950
	Decile 1	0.0765	0.0229
	Decile 10	0.4803	0.2774
	Ratio decile10/decile1	4.32	12.09
	p of chi squared of GNDD test	0.0265	0.0072

NE = Northern Europe; SE = Southern Europe;
SELF = original model, respectively NE or SE; SCM = substituting S₍₀₎, coefficients and means of risk factors; CM = model substituting coefficients and means of risk factors; C = model substituting coefficients only; WC = model substituting coefficients with the widest coefficients that had the corresponding HR (95% CI): age 1.50 (1.28 1.77); BMI 1.21 (1.05 1.41); systolic blood pressure 1.55 (1.32 1.82); heart rate 1.05 (0.81 1.36); cholesterol 1.28 (1.18 1.39); ex-smokers 1.31 (0.75 2.26); smoker 2.18 (1.45 3.28); finally ALTS = substituting S₍₀) with altered S₍₀₎: for NE 0.9098 instead of 0.7698; for SE: 0.9254 instead of 0.9354.
GNDD = Greenwood-Nam-D’Agostino-Demler goodness of fit test for re-calibrated survival models: by this test significant difference (outlined here in bold) means that re-calibration is not good enough²⁴.

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