Figure 1

95% posterior predictive intervals for November total of spectacled flying-fox population (blue) and spectacled flying-fox population found in camps (black) utilizing all known camps (n = 62). The solid lines indicate the medians, and dotted lines the 95% credibility intervals. The black dots are observed counts of spectacled flying-foxes in camps, with dashed lines the 95% credibility intervals. The timing of major cyclones are indicated by the black arrows (from left to right, Cyclones Larry, Yasi, and Oswald). Projections (in the absence of cyclones) are shown in red for the total population and grey for the in-camp population.