Table 2 Mean, standard deviation and 95% credible interval of the parameters of the autoregressive models.

	Model 1 (Autoregressive model without covariates)				Model 2 (Autoregressive model with covariates)
	Mean	SD	95% CrI		Mean	SD	95% CrI
Intercept	−0.362	0.045	−0.450	−0.275	−0.136	0.528	−1.265	0.767
Economic status					−0.029	0.057	−0.141	0.082
Education level					−0.269	0.160	−0.645	−0.021
Density					−0.015	0.002	−0.018	−0.012
Residential instability					0.001	0.001	0.000	0.002
One-person households					0.002	0.000	0.002	0.003
Aging					0.002	0.000	0.001	0.002
Immigrant concentration					−0.007	0.008	−0.024	0.009
Trimester 1	−0.122	0.057	−0.230	−0.008	−0.119	0.053	−0.220	−0.014
Trimester 2	0.093	0.059	−0.024	0.208	0.093	0.058	−0.019	0.206
Trimester 3	0.118	0.053	0.016	0.227	0.119	0.054	0.011	0.222
\({{\rm{\sigma }}}_{\theta }\)	0.359	0.019	0.323	0.398	0.377	0.021	0.337	0.416
\({{\rm{\sigma }}}_{\varphi }\)	0.160	0.030	0.102	0.220	0.144	0.080	0.011	0.256
\({\sigma }_{\alpha }\)	0.106	0.032	0.051	0.178	0.106	0.030	0.055	0.166
ρ	0.903	0.009	0.885	0.919	0.881	0.011	0.859	0.900
DIC	24,577					24,546.7

Abbreviations: SD, standard deviation; CrI, credible interval; σ_θ, standard deviation spatially unstructured term; σ_ϕ standard deviation structured term; σ_∝, standard mean deviation of the risk; ρ temporal correlation.

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