Figure 7
Comparison of the fit between different Twitter-based metrics and the NYT national polling average time series for Hillary Clinton. We show the normalized NYT poll scores of Hillary Clinton (dashed purple) fitted to our Twitter opinion metrics. The 13 days moving average of Hillary Clinton’s score computed using mentions (eq. 2, dashed green line), mentions with sentiment (eq. 3, dotted orange line), hashtags (eq. 4, dash-dotted pink line), a classifier trained using only the tweets containing the top hashtags in each camp (dotted green line) and our Twitter opinion (continuous blue line). All the metrics, except for our opinion metrics and the one obtained from the classifier trained using only top hashtags, are mainly below the 50% line, and therefore disagree with the NYT national polling average.
