Figure 3

(a–c) Probability of infection (based on 500 simulations) for England and Wales when infection is introduced into Suffolk and Essex on 5 August: (a) No movement restrictions; (b) BTV movement restrictions only; (c) BTV and approximate FMD movement restrictions. (d) Spatial distribution of farms confirmed to be infected: red dots indicate farms with animals showing clinical signs or discovered as a result of surveillance on or before 31 December 2007; orange dots indicate farms discovered as a result of pre-movement testing between 1 January and 15 March 2008, but which are likely to have been infected during the previous vector season. Maps were produced using Matlab version 7.12.0.635 (R2011a, www.mathworks.com).