Table 1 Results of linear regression analyses of measures of outbreak scale by county and explanatory variables relating to temperature, farm density and level of animal movements.

From: The effect of temperature, farm density and foot-and-mouth disease restrictions on the 2007 UK bluetongue outbreak

  

Intercept

Coefficient of DD >13.3 °C

Coefficient of farm density

Coefficient of animal movements

R2

adj R2

β 0

β 1

β 2

β 3

% sims

model 1

y1 = β0 + β1x1

19.58

(12.03, 27.13)

0.15

(0.13, 0.18)

  

0.74

0.74

model 2

y1 = β0 + β1x1 + β2x2

20.39

(8.00, 32.77)

0.15

(0.13, 0.18)

−0.0001

(−0.0013, 0.0011)

 

0.74

0.73

model 3

y1 = β0 + β1x1 + β2x2 + β3x3

20.36

(7.84, 32.89)

0.15

(0.12, 0.18)

−0.0001

(−0.0015, 0.0012)

0.00008

(−0.0018, 0.0020)

0.74

0.73

median

model 1

y2 = β0 + β1x1

603.09

(226.29, 979.89)

0.04

(−1.20, 1.29)

  

0.00009

−0.019

model 2

y2 = β0 + β1x1 + β2x2

−723.47

(−1127.50, −319.44)

1.77

(0.85, 2.69)

0.16

(0.12, 0.20)

 

0.57

0.56

model 3

y2 = β0 + β1x1 + β2x2 + β3x3

−740.00

(−1137.69, −342.31)

1.90

(0.98, 2.81)

0.14

(0.10, 0.19)

0.05

(−0.01, 0.11)

0.60

0.57

model 4

y2 = β0 + β2x2

−40.49

(−256.76, 175.78)

 

0.13

(0.09, 0.17)

 

0.45

0.44

model 5

y2 = β0 + β2x2 + β3x3

−21.67

(−242.33, 198.99)

 

0.12

(0.07, 0.16)

0.03

(−0.04, 0.10)

0.46

0.44

  1. The dependent variables are: y1, percentage of simulations with non-zero outbreak; y2, median of non-zero outbreak sizes. The independent explanatory variables are: x1, number of degree days >13.3 °C in the county; x2, number of farms within 50 km of county centroid; x3, total number of off-farm movements occurring in the county in June, July and August. 95% confidence intervals are given with each estimate.
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