Figure 3
From: Low efficiency of large volcanic eruptions in transporting very fine ash into the atmosphere
Qs prediction model using model selection analysis. (a) Statistical relationship between Qs derived from fallout deposits, Qa derived from satellite-based measurements, and H (above the vent) derived from observations, in a three-dimensional natural logarithm space. The best Qs prediction model is shown as the coloured plane and the related equation is given in natural scale following a power-law at the top of the plot. It was selected by the AICc (Corrected Akaike Information Criterion) which gives a robust evaluation of the goodness-of-the-fit for small datasets. The error factor and related RMSE are provided at a 95% prediction interval. See Supplementary Information Table 2 for all the goodness-of-the-fit evaluation criteria. (b) Error factor contour levels related to the MER estimation plotted on the two-dimensional plane H vs. Qa in natural logarithm, and showing the anisotropy of the error distribution. Red triangles represent eruptions (12 over 22) for which the error factor value is ∼2 or less. Practically, this means that estimations of MER for future eruptions falling in this range of Qa (∼1 × 103 to 1 × 105 kg/s) and H (∼7 to 21 km) have a 95% probability to fall within an error factor of 2 only.
