Table 1 The corresponding time in 17 models when global surface temperature rises to 1.5 °C and 2 °C relative to pre-industrial (1861–1880) under RCPs.
From: Most of the Northern Hemisphere Permafrost Remains under Climate Change
Model | 1.5 °C | 2 °C | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCP2.6 | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | RCP2.6 | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | |
BCC-CSM1.1 | 2023/2026 | 2022/2025 | 2019/2026 | N/N | 2040/2050 | 2038/2038 |
BCC-CSM1.1(m) | 2014/2018 | 2013/2015 | 2011/2014 | 2029/N | 2034/2037 | 2029/2029 |
BNU-ESM | 2007/2012 | 2006/2017 | 2009/2016 | 2025/2031 | 2022/2031 | 2024/2024 |
CanESM2 | 2017/2017 | 2020/2020 | 2009/2015 | 2033/2033 | 2030/2035 | 2027/2030 |
CNRM-CM5 | 2040/2045 | 2035/2038 | 2030/2030 | N/N | 2055/2060 | 2045/2045 |
CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 | 2029/2029 | 2026/2031 | 2022/2030 | 2069/N | 2043/2053 | 2043/2043 |
HadGEM2-ES | 2022/2028 | 2031/2031 | 2023/2030 | 2048/N | 2043/2045 | 2036/2038 |
IPSL-CM5A-LR | 2016/2021 | 2014/2018 | 2015/2015 | 2033/2038 | 2032/2032 | 2030/2030 |
IPSL-CM5A-MR | 2012/2021 | 2023/2023 | 2010/2015 | 2042/N | 2034/2034 | 2030/2030 |
MIROC-ESM | 2021/2021 | 2021/2021 | 2021/2021 | 2040/2043 | 2034/2034 | 2031/2031 |
MIROC-ESM-CHEM | 2015/2015 | 2023/2023 | 2019/2019 | 2031/2034 | 2038/2038 | 2027/2027 |
MIROC5 | 2047/2052 | 2033/2052 | 2028/2033 | N/N | 2055/2058 | 2043/2052 |
GISS-E2-H | 2025/2042 | 2023/2023 | 2021/2026 | N/N | 2050/2054 | 2039/2042 |
CCSM4 | 2021/2023 | 2014/2024 | 2018/2021 | N/N | 2043/2047 | 2033/2033 |
CESM1(CAM5) | 2029/2037 | 2030/2033 | 2029/2033 | 2061/N | 2047/2053 | 2043/2043 |
GFDL-CM3 | 2021/2036 | 2025/2033 | 2026/2029 | 2052/2059 | 2040/2040 | 2041/2043 |
NorESM1-M | 2082/N | 2040/2051 | 2035/2035 | N/N | 2079/2089 | 2051/2053 |
MME | 2023/2027 | 2026/2026 | 2023/2023 | N/N | 2043/2046 | 2037/2037 |
