Table 1 Model performance metrics in the full sample (n = 160).
Metric | Time since wake | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4 h | 6 h | 8 h | 10 h | 12 h | 14 h | |
Accuracy (%) | 70.4 ± 1.7 | 66.7 ± 1.7 | 75.6 ± 1.9 | 72.3 ± 1.6 | 69.9 ± 2.1 | 64.8 ± 1.4 |
Cohen’s kappa | 0.51 ± 0.03 | 0.50 ± 0.03 | 0.61 ± 0.03 | 0.54 ± 0.03 | 0.55 ± 0.03 | 0.48 ± 0.02 |
Classifying resilient participants versus bottom 75% of performers | ||||||
Sensitivity (%) | 62.9 ± 3.5 | 84.0 ± 3.0 | 81.0 ± 2.7 | 69.2 ± 2.4 | 83.7 ± 4.1 | 89.7 ± 2.7 |
Specificity (%) | 91.0 ± 1.3 | 84.9 ± 1.2 | 90.7 ± 0.92 | 92.8 ± 1.2 | 81.4 ± 1.6 | 75.1 ± 1.2 |
Positive predictive value (%) | 71.8 ± 3.6 | 66.9 ± 2.4 | 76.0 ± 2.2 | 77.6 ± 2.9 | 60.7 ± 2.7 | 55.0 ± 1.9 |
Negative predictive value (%) | 88.5 ± 1.0 | 94.2 ± 1.0 | 93.7 ± 0.83 | 90.3 ± 0.76 | 94.1 ± 1.4 | 95.9 ± 1.0 |
Classifying vulnerable participants versus top 75% of performers | ||||||
Sensitivity (%) | 57.0 ± 3.4 | 73.9 ± 2.4 | 70.0 ± 3.5 | 57.4 ± 3.3 | 84.0 ± 4.2 | 79.6 ± 2.1 |
Specificity (%) | 91.8 ± 1.2 | 83.2 ± 1.4 | 91.2 ± 1.7 | 94.4 ± 1.2 | 86.7 ± 1.5 | 85.4 ± 1.2 |
Positive predictive value (%) | 71.4 ± 3.7 | 60.3 ± 2.6 | 74.6 ± 4.1 | 79.1 ± 5.0 | 69.3 ± 3.3 | 66.0 ± 2.5 |
Negative predictive value (%) | 86.9 ± 0.94 | 90.9 ± 0.85 | 90.3 ± 1.1 | 87.2 ± 0.86 | 94.4 ± 1.4 | 92.8 ± 0.74 |