Table 1 Main characteristics and results of the different simulated scenarios.
Scenario name | south-east | south | dolomieu | topA1_sup | topA1_inf | topA2 | midA2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Conditions Characterization | |||||||
Scar geometry | superficial | deep-seated | |||||
Most likely forcing | Intense rainfall, earthquake, phreatic eruption | magmatic eruption | |||||
Relative probability of occurrence | high | low | |||||
Volume (×106 m3) | 1.1 | 7.1 | 9.7 | 48 | 53 | 93 | 110 |
Proportion in A1 | 0% | 1% | 1.5% | 8% | 11% | ||
Proportion in A2 | 0% | 0% | 0.5% | 2.5% | |||
Empirical μeff | 0.34 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.24 |
δ eff | 18.6° | 16.4° | 16.0° | 14.3° | 14.2° | 13.6° | 13.4° |
Simulation Results | |||||||
Best-fit for the 1530 CE deposits | — | — | δ = 7° | — | |||
Material trapped in the scarp | no | yes | |||||
Large lateral spreading of the flow | no | if δ ≤ 10° | if δ ≤ 10° | ||||
Flow reaches Basse-Terre | no | if δ = 7° | |||||
Flow reaches coast | no | no | if δ = 7° | ||||
Flow reaches Saint-Claude | no | if δ ≤ 10° | if δ ≤ 10° | ||||
