Table 3 Timeliness of a spatio-temporal Bayesian mixed effects regression model at detecting a simulated outbreak in 15 different gastrointestinal disease outbreak scenarios, at a reporting threshold l = 0.
Spatial geometry | Extent | Severity (fraction of GI cases) | Timeliness (days to detection since start of outbreak) |
|---|---|---|---|
Sparse | Confined to central premise | 0.1 | 2 |
Sparse | Confined to central premise | 0.15 | 1 |
Sparse | Confined to central premise | 0.2 | 0 |
Medium | Confined to central premise | 0.1 | NA |
Medium | Confined to central premise | 0.15 | 1 |
Medium | Confined to central premise | 0.2 | 0 |
Dense | Confined to central premise | 0.1 | 1 |
Dense | Confined to central premise | 0.15 | 1 |
Dense | Confined to central premise | 0.2 | 0 |
Medium | Extending to neighbouring premises | 0.1 | 1 |
Medium | Extending to neighbouring premises | 0.15 | 0 |
Medium | Extending to neighbouring premises | 0.2 | 0 |
Dense | Extending to neighbouring premises | 0.1 | 1 |
Dense | Extending to neighbouring premises | 0.15 | 1 |
Dense | Extending to neighbouring premises | 0.2 | 0 |
