Table 1 Design of POAMA forecast sensitivity experiments.

From: Continuation of tropical Pacific Ocean temperature trend may weaken extreme El Niño and its linkage to the Southern Annular Mode

 

Ocean Initial Conditions

Atmosphere & Land

Initial Conditions

CO2

Ozone

pElNiño

1982, 1997, 2015

Thirty-three different conditions drawn from

1981–2013

345 ppm

Monthly climatology

wElNiño

pElNiño+2xTR

pClim

climatology of 1981–2013

wClim

pClim + 2xTR

pElNiño’

pElNiño − pClim

wElNiño'

wElNiño − wClim

  1. All the atmosphere, land and ocean initial conditions are of 00 UTC September 1. TR denotes the 3-dimensional observed ocean temperature and salinity trends estimated over 1960–2014 on 00 UTC September 1, using the PEODAS ocean reanalysis set. 99 forecasts were generated for El Niño with the present ocean mean state (pElNiño) and for El Niño with the warmer ocean mean state by the doubled observed trend (wElNiño), and 33 forecasts were generated for the present climatology (pClim) and the warmer climatology with the doubled observed trend (wClim).
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