Figure 3

Qualitative trend review. Mortality rates and survival in osteoarthritis cohorts of NACC, OAI and NBER datasets as a function of age. (A) National Alzheimer Coordination Center (NACC) dataset includes 8300 patients in osteoarthritis cohort, 300 in rheumatoid arthritis and 7000 in non-arthritis control. The age ranges with insufficient population to ensure decreased random error were discarded (<50 and >100). Only clinician-selected diagnoses (variable ARTYPE) of Version 3.0 were accepted, excluding self-reporting data. Males and females were considered separately (white bars indicate data for females, black bars for males). Due to small cohort size, data for rheumatoid arthritis are available only in females. (B) Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) dataset includes 4800 patients in osteoarthritis cohort. The control was provided by computing the risk of dying using actuarial tables for the years when the project was active, considering the initial ages, years in follow up and withdrawals. The probability of survival at the beginning and at the end of observation was compared by integral Gompertz model (4) in the control. Males and females were considered separately (see legend for Fig. 3A). (C) Fractions of survival in the NBER populations marked by the tags of interest (2 × 10⁴ osteoarthritis of hand, M19* ICD-10 code, 4 × 10⁶ in general population control). Red line symbolizes survival in general population (GP), orange line symbolizes survival in any of the sum of cardiovascular disease (infarction, congestive heart failure, angina, arrythmia, fibrillation, stent, aneurisms, valvular deformations, endocarditis, myocarditis, pericarditis, atherosclerotic cardiac disease). The CVD survival (orange line) is shifted to the right vs. GP due to CVD development mostly in later life, thus starting extinction later. Osteoarthritis is represented by the green line and it emerges concurrently with CVD. Diabetes, lung cancer and early dementia are known as the strongest predictors of shortened lifespan and thus serve as positive controls, producing left-shifts vs. general population and CVD curve. Osteoarthritis produces a comparable right shift on the same plot, indicated by the arrow.