Table 3 Determining a percent of population exceeding 100-year benchmark in different cohorts, using extraction of Gompertz constants from AMRT metrics and equivalents.

From: Increased lifespan, decreased mortality, and delayed cognitive decline in osteoarthritis

COHORT	AGES
COHORT	48	53	58		63	68	73	78	83		88	93	98
AT	0.0042	0.0065	0.01		0.0156	0.024	0.038	0.0585	0.0909		0.1413	0.2194	0.3409
NACC CN*	0.010	0.015	0.022		0.031	0.044	0.064	0.090	0.129		0.185	0.264	0.38
NACC OA*	0.003	0.005	0.008		0.126	0.20	0.031	0.050	0.079		0.125	0.198	0.313
OAI* OA	0.0017	0.0026	0.0041		0.0064	0.01	0.0156	0.0245	0.0385		0.0603	0.0945	0.148
KAISER OA	0.002	0.003	0.0049		0.0078	0.012	0.019	0.0304	0.048		0.0755	0.119	0.187
KAISER NON-OA	0.007	0.01	0.015		0.0215	0.031	0.045	0.065	0.095		0.137	0.199	0.289
TILDA* OA	0.0024	0.0042	0.0069		0.0115	0.019	0.031	0.052	0.088		0.147	0.246	0.416
NBERC	0.0033	0.0052	0.00825		0.01315	0.021	0.0335	0.0533	0.0852		0.1358	0.2167	0.347
NBER-M19 OA	0.0009	0.0016	0.0029		0.0053	0.0095	0.017	0.0315	0.0572		0.1043	0.1896	0.345
NBER - M05-M06 RA	0.006	0.0095	0.0144		0.0218	0.033	0.05	0.0761	0.1153		0.1749	0.2653	0.402
NBER- M17 OA	0.0036	0.0056	0.0087		0.0134	0.021	0.032	0.0498	0.077		0.1193	0.1846	0.286
NBER -M15 OA	0.0017	0.003	0.0048		0.0079	0.013	0.022	0.0364	0.0606		0.1008	0.1677	0.279
GRIM BOOKS GP	0.0027	0.0044	0.0069		0.011	0.0174	0.0276	0.0439	0.0697		0.1106	0.1755	0.2786
GRIM BOOKS OA	0.0009	0.0015	0.0025		0.0043	0.0074	0.0126	0.0215	0.0367		0.0628	0.1072	0.1832
GRIM BOOKS RA	0.0024	0.0039	0.0065		0.0108	0.0178	0.0294	0.0486	0.0802		0.1325	0.2189	0.3617
Gompertz constants, ln H(T) = ln [a] + b × T
COHORT	Ln [a]			[B]			Regression residual			Predicted percent reaching 100 year lifespan
AT	−9.71 ± (0.69)			0.0881 ± (0.0063)			0.0102			1.1%
NACC CN*	−7.97 ± (0.42)			0.0714 ± (0.0038)			0.0056			0.2%
NACC OA*	−10.167 ± (0.78)			0.0919 ± (0.007)			0.012			1.6%
OAI*	−10.72 ± (0.54)			0.0899 ± (0.0045)			0.0051			13%
KAISER NON-OA*	−8.52 ± (0.28)			0.0743 ± (0.0025)			0.0022			1%
KAISER OA*	−10.57 ± (0.58)			0.0908 ± (0.0049)			0.006			8.4%
TILDA OA*	−10–12* (estimated)			0.0935–0.1141 (estimated)			NA			0.6–0.8%
NBERC	−10.37 ± (0.127)			0.0954 ± (0.0012)			0.0003			1.06%
NBEROA-M19	−12.95 ± (0.24)			0.1217 ± (0.0023)			0.0007			3.3%
NBER - M05-M06	−9.21 ± (0.61)			0.0833 ± (0.0051)			0.0074			0.7%
NBER- M17	−9.81 ± (0.59)			0.0874 ± (0.0052)			0.0072			2.0%
NBER -M15	−11.25 ± (0.25)			0.1018 ± (0.0022)			0.0010			8.4%
GRIM BOOKS RA	−10.85 ± (0.98)			0.1004 ± (0.0090)			0.0162			1.2%
GRIM BOOKS OA	−12.19 ± (0.64)			0.1071 ± (0.0056)			0.0055			12%
GRIM BOOKS GP	−10.33 ± (0.42)			0.0924 ± (0.0037)			0.0033			2.6%

The leading section represents H(T) – distribution of mortality hazard as a function of age.
Control cohorts include actuarial tables, average for 2005 and 2015 (AT, see https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html), NBERC – general population control derived in NBER, NBER RA - rheumatoid arthritis control in NBER, NACC CN – non-arthritis control NACC population, KAISER non-OA – Kaiser Permanente study non-arthritic population, GRIM BOOKS GP – general population in GRIM BOOKS, GRIM BOOKS RA – rheumatoid arthritis control.
OA cohorts include NACC OA cohorts, OAI - OAI cohorts, M15* – patients with poly-arthrosis (ICD-10 code M15), NBEROA-M19* cohorts (osteoarthritis hand localization), NBEROA-M17* (osteoarthritis knee localization), KAISER OA (all localizations), TILDA* (mortality for this dataset was estimated from cognitive decline risk).
The symbol [*] indicates the datasets where constants were extracted in the mixed living-decedent populations with a limited follow up. The rest (AT, GRIM BOOKS and NBER data) present constants extracted in decedent data only with a follow up equal to a lifespan.
[a,b] Are pre-exponential and exponential Gompertz constants respectively.

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Table 3 Determining a percent of population exceeding 100-year benchmark in different cohorts, using extraction of Gompertz constants from AMRT metrics and equivalents.

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