Figure 1
From: Model-based Comparisons of the Abundance Dynamics of Bacterial Communities in Two Lakes
Observed, modeled, and predicted annual abundances of 14 bacterial sub-communities in Lake Lanier. The abscissa shows the days of a multi-year period between July 2010 and October 2015, and the ordinate exhibits the relative abundances (percentages) of bacterial sub-communities; note the different scales of the ordinates. Measurements, indicating time points and abundances, are shown as red dots. They were used to estimate the parameters for the model. The ranges (mean ± 2 standard deviations) predicted by our 84 best-performing model parameterizations (m = 3) for this time period are shown in grey. Data collected between March and October of 2015 (blue) were used as validation. It would have been desirable to have much denser and longer time series data for validation, but we chose this short period as a balance between model training and validation. Panel A: Ten-year model results and validation with data not used before (blue dots) for SC-1. Panel B: Model fits (red dots) and validation with data collected between March and October of 2015 (blue) for all sub-communities. Predictions of trends were computed for five more years, but are not shown. Note that SC-13 and SC-14, which contain OTUs not fitting into other SCs, are much less defined than the other SCs.
