Figure 4
From: Sea-level rise exponentially increases coastal flood frequency
The relationship between sea-level rise and the relative increase in the odds of exceeding the present-day 50-year water-level event, O/O0. Each colored solid line corresponds to the relationship (O/O0 vs. sea-level rise) for a single tide station, and each station is colored according to its classification shown in Fig. 1 (however, some transparency is applied to each line to reduce occlusion). Panel A shows a plot of the relative odds O/O0 vs. the amount of sea-level rise (\({\mu }_{{\rm{SL}}}\)), where the x- and y-axes of the panel are on linear and (base-two) logarithmic scales, respectively. Hence, relationships that follow a straight line correspond to exponential growth (i.e., doubling) with a fixed amount of sea-level rise on the x-axis. The red, black, and green dashed lines on panel B correspond to doubling the of odds of exceedance with every 1 cm, 5 cm, and 25 cm of sea-level rise, respectively, according to Eq. (5) in Methods. Panel B shows a plot of the base-two logarithm of the relative odds, i.e., \({\log }_{2}(O/{O}_{0})\) vs. the normalized amount of sea-level rise (\({\mu }_{{\rm{SL}}}/\tilde{\sigma }\)), where the parameter \(\tilde{\sigma }\) is derived from the average slope of the curves in panel A. The straight, one-to-one line (i.e., the thick dashed line) on panel B corresponds to the relationship \(O/{O}_{0}={2}^{{\mu }_{{\rm{S}}{\rm{L}}}/\mathop{\sigma }\limits^{ \sim }}\) (from Eq. (5) in Methods). The thin dashed lines on Panel B enclose areas that are within a factor of 4 of the relationship in Eq. (5).
