Figure 6

The relative increase in the odds of exceeding the present-day 50-year water-level event, O/O₀, with respect to time. In this case, the odds increase is driven entirely by the sea-level rise scenarios of Kopp et al. (2014)²⁹, which are shown in panels A, C, and E that correspond to RCP 8.5, 4.5, and 2.6 emissions scenarios, respectively. As in panel A of Fig. 4, panels B, D, and F calculate the odds from the empirical exceedance distribution resulting from all values of the recorded hourly water level. The x- and y-axes of panels B, D, and F are on linear and (base-two) logarithmic scales, respectively. Hence, relationships that follow a straight line correspond to exponential growth (i.e., doubling) with a fixed amount of time on the x-axis. Each solid line corresponds to the relationship between O/O₀ and sea-level rise for a single tide station, and each station is colored according to its classification shown in Fig. 1 (however, some transparency is applied to each line to reduce occlusion). The black solid lines correspond to tide stations where sea-level rise is projected to decrease with time in the next few decades (which are generally located at high latitudes due to Glacio-isostatic adjustment). The red, black, and green dashed lines in panels B, D, and F correspond to a doubling of exceedance odds with every 1 yr, 5 yr, and 25 yr period, respectively, according to Eq. (6) in Methods.