Table 2 Snow cover, day length, temperature and NDVI values extracted at each location during spring (at one-day step length) and compared between days (from 10 days in the past to 10 days in the future), separately for each species.

From: Arctic avian predators synchronise their spring migration with the northern progression of snowmelt

Species (n = number of locations)

Dep. var.

Pred.

Est.

SE

z/t value

p value

ΔAIC

AIC Weight

LL

Snowy owl n = 67572

Snow cover

(Intercept)

1.70

0.51

3.35

<0.001

3461*

1.0

−30794

Day

−0.10

0.00

−56.70

<0.001

Day length

(Intercept)

15.44

0.37

41.64

<0.001

446*

1.0

−181330

Day

0.05

0.00

21.21

<0.001

Temperature

(Intercept)

0.82

1.23

0.67

0.51

4543*

1.0

−224904

Day

0.30

0.00

68.57

<0.001

NDVI

(Intercept)

−0.40

0.05

−7.70

<0.001

3420*

1.0

2472

Day

0.01

0.00

59.25

<0.001

Rough-legged buzzard n = 133461

Snow cover

(Intercept)

−1.04

0.15

−7.00

<0.001

8186*

1.0

−72895

Day

−0.10

0.00

−87.11

<0.001

Daylength

(Intercept)

15.44

0.23

67.46

<0.001

501*

1.0

−366250

Day

0.04

0.00

22.44

<0.001

Temperature

(Intercept)

7.07

0.44

15.93

<0.001

6314*

1.0

−417478

Day

0.20

0.00

80.43

<0.001

NDVI

(Intercept)

−0.22

0.02

−11.16

<0.001

7321*

1.0

−42750

Day

0.01

0.00

86.76

<0.001

Peregrine falcon n = 6575

Snow cover

(Intercept)

−3.90

1.08

−3.61

<0.001

134*

1.0

−899

Day

−0.13

0.01

−10.90

<0.001

Day length

(Intercept)

16.66

0.83

20.04

<0.001

185*

1.0

−14843

Day

0.06

0.00

13.76

<0.001

Temperature

(Intercept)

6.65

1.76

3.78

0.007

299*

1.0

−17929

Day

0.13

0.01

17.56

<0.001

NDVI

(Intercept)

0.13

0.21

0.63

0.55

107*

1.0

−1079

Day

0.01

0.00

10.46

<0.001

  1. Generalised linear mixed models (GLMM) with snow cover, day length, temperature and NDVI as dependent variables (each in a separate model), day as a predictor variable, and year nested in individual as a random effect. To evaluate the effect of the predictor, we compared a model with and without that predictor. Only the results of the full models are presented and those with ΔAIC > 2 are marked with *.