Table 2 Comparison of the models’ BIC, AUROC, and AUPR for the outbreak onset.

From: Factors governing outbreak dynamics in a forest intensively managed for mountain pine beetle

Size

Selected variables

VIFmax

BIC

Δ BIC

AUROC

AUPR

0

null

 

12705.2

4078.3

0.500

0.010

1

Iu

1.0

10121.8

1495.0

0.650

0.154

2

Peak, Iu

1.0

9317.5

690.6

0.770

0.142

3

Peak, Iu, Ic

1.0

8787.9

161.0

0.786

0.172

4

Dist, Peak, Iu, Ic

1.2

8718.7

91.8

0.866

0.180

5

SMI, Dist, Peak, Iu, Ic

1.6

8675.3

48.4

0.705

0.179

6

SMI, Dist, Peak, Cover, Iu, Ic

1.6

8644.6

17.7

0.731

0.176

7

N, SMI, Dist, Peak, Cover,Iu, Ic

1.6

8626.9

0.0

0.739

0.174

7

N, SMI, Dist, Peak, Height, Iu, Ic

1.6

8633.4

6.5

0.731

0.174

8

N, SMI, Dist, Peak, Cover, Height, Iu, Ic

1.6

8628.3

1.4

0.741

0.173

8

N, Tmin, SMI, Dist, Peak, Cover, Iu, Ic

2.3

8630.1

3.2

0.743

0.175

9

N, Tmin, SMI, Dist, Peak, Cover, Height, Iu, Ic

2.3

8631.4

4.5

0.745

0.174

10

N, E, Tmin, SMI, Dist, Peak, Cover, Height, Iu, Ic

2.3

8639.8

12.9

0.751

0.173

11

N, E, Tmin, SMI, CT, Dist, Peak, Cover, Height, Iu, Ic

2.4

8650.6

23.7

0.751

0.172

  1. All models are compared to the one with the lowest BIC using ΔBIC. For each number of variables, we show the best model and competing models with a difference of BIC ≤8. The model in bold is the one selected from the ΔBIC ≤ 2. “AUROC” stands for the area under the ROC curve, “AUPR” stands for the area under the precision-recall curve.
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