Figure 1

Panel a: Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) considered in this study with the shading seasonal TC climatology (Nov–Apr) between 1970 and 2019. Contours represent seasonal (Nov–Apr) TC track density between 1970 and 2019 (0.5 TCs/season intervals). Panel b: Location of 12 regional, sub-regional and island scale models (including entire SWP region: 0°–35°S, 135°E–120­W). Where individual EEZ climatology was < 1.5 TCs per season, surrounding EEZs were merged to form the following sub-regions: Northern SWP (N SWP; Tuvalu, Wallis & Futuna and Tokelau), Central SWP (C SWP; Samoa, American Samoa and Niue), Northeast SWP (NE SWP; Northern Cook Islands, E.Kiribati: Line Islands, Marquesas, Tuamotu Archipelago, Gambier Islands and Pitcairn Islands), and Southeast SWP (SE SWP; Southern Cook Islands, Society Islands and Austral Islands). Island-scale models were derived for the following: Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga and Northern New Zealand. Models for W.Kiribati: Gilbert Islands and C.Kiribati: Phoenix Islands have not been derived or included as part of a larger sub-region as these locations have a low seasonal TC climatology (≤ 0.06 TCs) and are at minimal risk of TC activity. Figure created using a basemap from Natural Earth (www.naturalearthdata.com) and EEZ boundaries from⁴⁶.