Table 2 R-squares of AR, VAR and GAR predictions on test set in different age groups and horizons.

From: Using deep learning to predict the hand-foot-and-mouth disease of enterovirus A71 subtype in Beijing from 2011 to 2018

Model

Age group

Horizon (months)

1

2

4

6

8

10

12

AR

0–3

0.7538

0.3072

0.2518

0.5693

0.2776

0.3276

0.4583

3–6

0.8505

0.5976

-0.4590

0.3501

-0.409

0.4777

0.4380

 > 6

0.7510

0.4755

0.3779

0.2717

0.4095

0.4127

0.3421

Total

0.8420

0.4956

0.4690

0.5413

0.4368

0.4721

0.4810

VAR

0–3

0.7561

0.4129

0.4907

0.4509

0.5667

0.5527

0.3712

3–6

0.8550

0.4527

0.4507

0.3631

0.4707

0.1161

0.3671

 > 6

0.7906

0.4183

0.4589

0.2799

0.3129

0.2858

0.3254

Total

0.8319

0.6000

0.5071

0.3657

0.5711

0.4768

0.3498

GAR

0–3

0.8051

0.5101

0.6009

0.4088

0.5984

0.4458

0.4488

3–6

0.8193

0.4729

0.5907

0.4479

0.5526

0.4018

0.5246

 > 6

0.8141

0.5096

0.6210

0.4329

0.5723

0.4313

0.4797

Total

0.8181

0.5139

0.6050

0.4629

0.5753

0.4316

0.5160

  1. The number in bold indicates the maximum value in a certain horizon and age group. ‘Total’ means the total number of cases of EV-A71 subtype in Beijing.
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