Table 2 Quantitative translation of weather impact on Campylobacter cases in any municipality in the Nordic countries.

From: Campylobacter infections expected to increase due to climate change in Northern Europe

Scenario

Number of cases

Additional cases

% change

Normal

16

n.a.

n.a.

1 °C increase in mean temperature

18

2

13

1 mm increase in precipitation during the summer

22

6

38

One additional heat wavea in the summer

14

-2

-13

One additional heavy precipitationb event in the summer

24

8

50

  1. The hypothetical situation where one scenario event takes place in any municipality in a given week, and the resulting number of (additional) Campylobacter cases the following week because of this event.
  2. aHeat wave: three consecutive days with temperatures exceeding 99th percentile of the daily maximum temperature from 2000 to 2015.
  3. bHeavy precipitation: a day with precipitation exceeding 95th percentile of daily precipitation from 2000 to 2015.
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